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Value-weight-elicitation

Creating scenario A and B

  • Create crummy version of version B
  • B will be chosen more often

Relativity and planning

  • How might you manipulate planning scenarios to guide decisions?

Arbitrary Coherence​

  • Value can be ascribed randomly through association
  • Last two numbers of drivers license example

Social vs. Market Norms​

  • Thanksgiving example
    • Go to thanksgiving with inlaws
  • Very different expectations in these two contexts
    • Empathy, ethics, etc.
  • What is the context of land management decision making?

High price of ownership​

  • Wilingness to pay vs. willingness to accept
  • Cell phone / car example?

Keeping doors open​

  • loss aversion
  • Would you rather get a 5discountoravoida5 discount or avoid a 5 surcharge?
  • It is estimated that losses are psychologically twice as powerful as an equilavent gain

Cognitive Biases​

Bandwagon effect​

  • The tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same
  • Related to groupthink
  • The general rule is that conduct or beliefs spread among people, as fads clearly do, with "the probability of any individual adopting it increasing with the proportion who have already done so"

Bias blind spot​

  • The tendency not to compensate for one's own cognitive biases
  • Even when told you are biased, you will underestimate the effects

Choice-supportive bias​

  • The tendency to retroactively ascribe positive attributes to an option one has selected
  • Other adults are more likely than younger adults to show choice-supportive biases
  • Related to cognitive dissonance

Confirmation bias​

  • The tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions

Congruence bias​

  • The tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing
  • People generally ignore alternative hypotheses

Focusing effect​

  • placing too much importance on one aspect of an event
  • Also known as the anchoring effect
  • Using odometer readings to value a used car over maintenance records

Hyperbolic discsounting​

  • People generally prefer smaller, sooner payoffs to larger, later payoffs

Information bias​

  • The tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action
  • Fallacy that if we can get more information we can make better decisions
  • Information that is not worth knowing is not worth acquiring